Quarterly Market Outlook - 3Q 2024

There is U.S economic moderation, but cyclical upturns elsewhere.

U.S. growth is softening as lower-income households feel the bite of higher interest rates. Other developed markets are now enjoying cyclical upturns, yet the limited nature of their recoveries suggests that U.S. economic dominance still holds

Global inflation tentatively resumes its last mile of deceleration.

The inflation scare of 1Q24 is now waning, but a few more months of soft inflation data are required to validate that disinflation is proceeding as necessary. Without a sharp labor market slowdown, global inflation will unlikely reach central bank targets until late 2025, if not 2026.

Central bank cutting cycles are set to be slow and shallow.

A first Fed rate cut may occur in September, provided inflation continues to decelerate and economic activity does not reaccelerate. Other central banks have started easing, but their next moves may fall back in line with the Fed’s actions.

Equity markets may eke out positive gains, provided the economic backdrop remains solid.

That same economic strength that has delayed Fed cuts should support a positive backdrop for corporate earnings, ensuring that the set-up for U.S. equities remains reasonably constructive. Yet the concentration of gains does pose a risk.

Elevated fixed income yields continue drawing investor interest.

Macro resilience should ensure a gradual rise in defaults rather than a sudden spike, meaning credit spreads are unlikely to widen significantly from their current levels. Fixed income yields are markedly higher than a few years ago.

With potential gains across asset classes, staying in cash may be the leading risk.

Assets in money market funds have ballooned to a record $6 trillion, with investors attracted by elevated yields. Now, this cash may represent a potential tailwind to risk assets.

 

DISCLOSURES

Investment involves risks. Past performance of any particular fund or product mentioned in this document is not indicative of future performance of the relevant fund or product, and the value of the each fund or product mentioned in this document may go down as well as up. You should not invest solely in reliance on this document. There is no assurance on investment returns and you may not get back the amount originally invested.

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Equity investments involve greater risk, including higher volatility, than fixed-income investments. ​Fixed-income investments are subject to interest rate risk; as interest rates rise their value will decline. International and global investing involves greater risks such as currency fluctuations, political/social instability and differing accounting standards. Potential investors should be aware of the risks inherent to owning and investing in real estate, including value fluctuations, capital market pricing volatility, liquidity risks, leverage, credit risk, occupancy risk and legal risk. Non-investment grade securities offer a potentially higher yield but carry a greater degree of risk. Risks of preferred securities differ from risks inherent in other investments. In particular, in a bankruptcy preferred securities are senior to common stock but subordinate to other corporate debt. Emerging market debt may be subject to heightened default and liquidity risk. Risk is magnified in emerging markets, which may lack established legal, political, business, or social structures to support securities markets. Small and mid-cap stocks may have additional risks including greater price volatility. Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) are a type of Treasury security issued by the U.S. government. TIPS are indexed to inflation in order to help investors from a decline in the purchasing power of their money. As inflation rises, rather than their yield increasing, TIPS instead adjust in price (principal amount) in order to maintain their real value. Inflation and other economic cycles and conditions are difficult to predict and there Is no guarantee that any inflation mitigation/protection strategy will be successful. Contingent Capitals Securities may have substantially greater risk than other securities in times of financial stress. An issuer or regulator’s decision to write down, write off or convert a CoCo may result in complete loss on an investment. Real assets include but not limited to precious metals, commodities, real estate, land, equipment, infrastructure, and natural resources. Each real asset is subject to its own unique investment risk and should be independently evaluated before investing.  As an asset class, real assets are less developed, more illiquid, and less transparent compared to traditional asset classes.

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