Quarterly Market Outlook - 4Q 2024
A globally synchronized downturn produces a globally synchronized policy easing.
As global growth has weakened, policymakers have started to respond. The U.S. Federal Reserve is committed to avoiding recession, while China’s recent policy measures also raise the odds of a global soft landing.
The U.S. economy: Slowdown does not imply recession.
Labor market cooling has triggered recession concerns, but the continued strength of consumer and corporate balance sheets implies that job layoffs, and therefore recession, could be avoided. A moderation to trend growth is likely.
Central banks are determined to secure soft landings.
The Fed is set to lower rates toward 3% and may frontload rate cuts if there are further signs of labor market weakness. The Fed’s commitment to a soft landing may be mirrored by other central banks keen to avoid overly strong currencies.
Equity markets confront valuation challenges, but Fed cuts should support continued gains.
Historically, a Fed cutting cycle without recession has resulted in a strong equity market performance. While stretched valuations suggest gains may be more limited this time, a broadening of gains beyond just tech presents opportunities.
Fixed income typically shines in a late cycle slowdown.
Fixed income spreads are tight, but elevated yields continue to draw investor interest. Combined with strong growth, Fed cuts should reduce default risk, extending the credit cycle.
With potential gains across asset classes, staying in cash is the leading risk.
With the Fed’s rate cutting cycle now underway, the attractiveness of cash is rapidly diminishing. As global stimulus lifts prospects for risk assets across the globe, investors should be optimizing this constructive environment.
DISCLOSURES
Investment involves risks. Past performance of any particular fund or product mentioned in this document is not indicative of future performance of the relevant fund or product, and the value of the each fund or product mentioned in this document may go down as well as up. You should not invest solely in reliance on this document. There is no assurance on investment returns and you may not get back the amount originally invested.
This material may contain ‘forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.
Equity investments involve greater risk, including higher volatility, than fixed-income investments. Fixed-income investments are subject to interest rate risk; as interest rates rise their value will decline. International and global investing involves greater risks such as currency fluctuations, political/social instability and differing accounting standards. Potential investors should be aware of the risks inherent to owning and investing in real estate, including value fluctuations, capital market pricing volatility, liquidity risks, leverage, credit risk, occupancy risk and legal risk. Non-investment grade securities offer a potentially higher yield but carry a greater degree of risk. Risks of preferred securities differ from risks inherent in other investments. In particular, in a bankruptcy preferred securities are senior to common stock but subordinate to other corporate debt. Emerging market debt may be subject to heightened default and liquidity risk. Risk is magnified in emerging markets, which may lack established legal, political, business, or social structures to support securities markets. Small and mid-cap stocks may have additional risks including greater price volatility. Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) are a type of Treasury security issued by the U.S. government. TIPS are indexed to inflation in order to help investors from a decline in the purchasing power of their money. As inflation rises, rather than their yield increasing, TIPS instead adjust in price (principal amount) in order to maintain their real value. Inflation and other economic cycles and conditions are difficult to predict and there Is no guarantee that any inflation mitigation/protection strategy will be successful. Contingent Capitals Securities may have substantially greater risk than other securities in times of financial stress. An issuer or regulator’s decision to write down, write off or convert a CoCo may result in complete loss on an investment. Real assets include but not limited to precious metals, commodities, real estate, land, equipment, infrastructure, and natural resources. Each real asset is subject to its own unique investment risk and should be independently evaluated before investing. As an asset class, real assets are less developed, more illiquid, and less transparent compared to traditional asset classes.
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